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SEPTEMBER 13,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:53 P.M. ET: 

GO AWAY ALREADY – FROM THE HILL:   President Obama on Tuesday said he does not always agree with Democrats, even as he laid out the case for why they should lead the country after his term ends.  “Look, I recognize I am the head of the Democratic Party and that necessarily makes me a partisan,” he said at a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) fundraiser in New York City on Tuesday night.  “But I’m not actually someone who bleeds Democrats. I think back to 2008, and I meant what I said. I don’t think any party traditionally has a monopoly on what’s right.”  Suddenly he's becoming bipartisan.  Sure he is.  Obama never understood how to do things.  He should have studied Reagan, a committed conservative who had the skill to reach across the aisle.  Obama reaches for an ice-cream cone.

SHOWDOWN AT THE LEGAL CORRAL – FROM BEARING ARMS:   Film producer Katie Couric and her director Stephanie Soechtig edited their anti-gun documentary Under the Gun in order to make a gun rights group in Virginia look as if they couldn’t answer a simple question.  They’re now facing a $12 million defamation lawsuit, according to documents provided to Bearing Arms.  Second Amendment rights advocacy organization the Virginia Citizens Defense League (VCDL), along with two of its members, today filed a $12 million defamation lawsuit against Katie Couric, director Stephanie Soechtig, Atlas Films, and Studio 3 Partners LLC d/b/a Epix for false and defamatory footage featured in the 2016 documentary film Under the Gun. The film portrays a fictional exchange in which members of the VCDL appear silent, stumped, and avoiding eye contact for nearly nine seconds after Katie Couric asks a question about background checks. An unedited audio recording of the interview reveals that—contrary to the portrayal in the film—the VCDL members had immediately begun responding to Couric’s question.  There are other outrages as well.  I'm all for lawsuits like this when they're justified, and this one is compelling.  We should more often show that our side can use the courts as well as the liberals can.

DO WE NEED THIS? – FROM CBS LOCAL:   BENTONVILLE, Ark. (CBS) – In the future, shopping carts may push themselves.   Walmart is now working on a self-driving shopping cart that customers would be able to hail like an Uber – possibly through a smartphone app.  The retailer filed a patent for a cart that has a motor and video cameras.  The best part? It would also be able to return itself from customers’ cars to the store.  Must we?  Frankly, I find it almost romantic to go to a supermarket, grab a shopping cart, fight to free it from the one it's jammed into, and push it around the store with one wheel stuck in place.  It reminds me that I'm still the master of the cart.  Some progress isn't worth it.

September 13, 2016       Permalink

THAT GREAT IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:   The deal has certainly improved Iran's behavior, hasn't it?  From Fox:

Iran threatened to shoot down two US Navy surveillance aircraft flying close to Iranian territory in the Persian Gulf over the weekend, the latest in a series of recent provocations between Iran and the US military in the region, three US defense officials with knowledge of the incident told Fox News.

On Sept. 10, a Navy P-8 Poseidon with a crew of nine and an EP-3 Eries with a crew of roughly 24, were flying a reconnaissance mission 13 miles off the coast of Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, according to officials.

Iran’s territorial waters—like all nations--extend 12 miles into the sea, according to international maritime law.

At some point during the flight, the Iranian military warned the two aircraft to change course or risk getting shot down.

The US military planes ignored the warning and continued flying in international airspace, although close to Iranian territory, the officials told Fox.

“We wanted to test the Iranian reaction,” one US official told Fox News when asked why the US jets were flying close to Iran.

“It’s one thing to tell someone to get off your lawn, but we weren’t on their lawn,” the official continued. “Anytime you threaten to shoot someone down, it’s not considered professional.”

COMMENT:  The Iranians have also practiced "swarm" attacks by small, armed boats near American naval vessels.  And recent statements by Iranian officials make reference to the American debacle at the Bay of Pigs in Cuba in 1961, and claim that the waters around Iran are Iranian.

When you flash weakness, this is what happens.  And Obama has flashed weakness. 

September 13, 2016       Permalink

CHILLING – AT 9:27 A.M. ET:  As we fight our bizarre election campaign, the world is not stopping.  Terrorists are not stopping.  From Reuters: 

Authorities have reportedly uncovered the first all-female Islamic State cell in France after several suspects were detained over alleged plans to attack the Eiffel Tower.

The four-woman cell's purported leading member was arrested last week in connection to an explosives-laden car found near another Paris landmark - the Notre Dame cathedral.

The leading suspect, an alleged 29-year-old mother-of-three was named as Ornella Gilligman. She reportedly told French authorities that her jihadi cell had preferred to target the iconic Eiffel Tower, and not in fact the cathedral.

The other three members of France's purported first all-female ISIS cell were supposedly named as Ines Madani, 19, Sarah Hervouet, 23, and Amel Sakaou, 39. As of Sunday, authorities were still questioning the three.

On Friday, the Paris prosecutor announced that the three women were arrested after the car was found. He said they were directed by Islamic State militants in Syria and were completely committed to the cause.

COMMENT:  The "junior varsity," as Obama put it, strikes again.  And it will continue to strike.

ISIS is losing territory in Syria and Iraq.  That is good news.  But it is responding by increasing its international terrorism.  Most Americans, according to polls, expect an attack in the United States in the near future.  We hope they are wrong.  We fear they are right.

September 13, 2016       Permalink

BOUNCE – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  The Los Angeles Times tracking poll, which tracks some 3,000 eligible voters, is showing a sharp gain for Donald Trump.

If the election were held today, Trump would get 45.8% and Clinton 42.8%.  We should point out that "eligible voter" polls tend to tilt somewhat Democratic, whereas likely voter polls tilt somewhat Republican.  Republicans are more likely to vote.

The sharp gain occurred during the last few days, perhaps suggesting concern about Hillary Clinton's health and her failure to be fully transparent about it.

We are cautious about polls here.  This is one poll.  The first debate is on September 26th.  That will have a substantial impact on public opinion.

September 13,  2016     Permalink

SEPTEMBER 12,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:57 P.M. ET: 

IT'S STARTING – FROM THE POLITICO:  A former Democratic National Committee chairman says President Barack Obama and the party’s congressional leaders should immediately come up with a process to identify a potential successor candidate for Hillary Clinton for the off-chance a health emergency forces her out of the race.  “Now is the time for all good political leaders to come to the aid of their party,” said Don Fowler, who helmed the DNC from 1995 to 1997, during Bill Clinton’s presidency, and has backed Hillary Clinton since her 2008 presidential bid. “I think the plan should be developed by 6 o’clock this afternoon.”  I doubt if he would have made that comment without considerable backing.

IS SHE SERIOUS? – FROM FOX:  Hillary Clinton defended herself Monday over her campaign's lateness announcing her pneumonia diagnosis, saying she's "already met a high standard of transparency" while looking forward to returning to the campaign trail.  The Democratic presidential nominee told CNN in a phone interview she did feel dizzy and lost her balance while attending a 9/11 commemoration ceremony in New York, but now is "feeling so much better."  "I was supposed to rest five days, that's what they told me on Friday, and I didn't follow that very wise advice," Clinton said.  She told CNN her campaign didn't make her diagnosis on Friday public because "I just didn't think it was going to be that big a deal."   Oh, I fully agree with our gracious queen.  Why would anyone be interested in the health of a presidential candidate? 

STATE OF THE RACE – FROM UPI:  The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Monday shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by about 3 percentage points.  The online poll shows Trump with 48.7 percent to Clinton's 45.8 percent in the seven-day polling period ending Sunday. Those responding with "others" were at 5 percent. "Others" in the poll are defined as respondents who decline to pick either Clinton or Trump.  The most recent data reflect a 0.8 percentage point shift toward Clinton compared to data collected a day earlier. Trump was at nearly 50 percent -- 49.1 percent -- compared with 45.3 percent for Clinton in the seven-day polling period ending Saturday. Trump's highest number since July 14 was 49.2 percent on July 24.   We stress that this is only one poll.  Others have Clinton slightly ahead.  And it's the races in individual states that will decide the election.  Overall, taking a number of polls into account, Hillary has a small lead in the battleground states, but it has been eroding.

September 12, 2016       Permalink

IS THE DOCTOR IN? – AT 10:52 A.M. ET:   There are many questions emerging in light of Hillary Clinton's illness.  Are we being told the truth?  Part of the truth?  A little fraction of the truth?

A distinguished reader makes this point:  "There are two vaccines – pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) and pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23), that the Centers for Disease Control urge everyone over 65 to get and that Medicare provides at no cost – because they prevent pneumonia attacks like the one Hillary Clinton claims to have had. Was she somehow so busy erasing emails during the four years since she turned 65 that she somehow didn't have time to get them?"

Excellent point.  I got the vaccine.  So did my wife.  Didn't Hillary's physician advise her to get that protection?  If not, why not?

Also, we're now told that Hillary's intense coughing spells are due to an allergy.  If that's the case, and given the severity of the coughing, why wasn't she placed in the care of a leading allergist?  There is no indication that she was.  Why not?

Further, from what I read, pneumonia can be contagious.  Is Hillary's contagious?  Is there even a little chance that it could be?  If so, what was she doing out in public, close to others?  And she embraced a little girl who approached her on the street yesterday.  What's going on here?

Do any of you have other questions?  I'd love to know at comments@urgentagenda.com.  The Clintons are secretive.  Even some of the CNN commentators this morning insisted that there be more transparency.   Hillary is, after all, running for president.

September 12, 2016       Permalink

IF HILLARY IS OUT – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:   What happens if Hillary Clinton's illness, or a second illness, or a relapse, forces her out of the presidential race?  Turns out the road ahead for the Democratic Party wouldn't be that clear.  From Heat Street:

When it comes to candidates (rather than office holders) the rules actually come from the political parties, not the Constitution. For Republicans, if a Presidential candidate dies or drops out, the RNC has to either convene a new convention or take an official poll of the RNC’s state representatives to select a replacement candidate. Most likely, the RNC would move the running mate up to the top of the bill, in order to preserve what fundraising has already been done for the ticket.

But for the Democrats, it’s not so clear. The Democratic National Committee reserves the right to replace a candidate who dies or drops out, and it doesn’t provide additional details in its by-laws. So presumably the Democrats would have to make up the process up as they go along. The DNC could entrust replacing Clinton to a central DNC brain trust or, more likely, replicate the RNC’s system, handing the vote over to the committee’s state delegates.

The DNC would likely want to retain the support of major donors who’ve already given to the Clinton-Kaine ticket, and would probably just bump Tim Kaine up from the Veep slot. Kaine would simply slide up the ticket, choose a new running mate, hope the ballots could be reprinted in time, and carry on just as Clinton had.

But, of course, this is 2016 and anything can happen.

Donald Trump has proven to be a wild card candidate: he’s spent no money, compared to Clinton’s million-dollar ad buys, and raised virtually nothing compared to his Democratic opponents, and he’s still running neck and neck with Clinton nationwide. So the DNC would likely have to consider whether Kaine could retain Clinton’s razor-thin lead, or whether they’d need a more capable candidate.

The DNC might naturally lean towards Joe Biden who said he didn’t want to campaign, but has never said, openly, that he’d prefer not to be President.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  It's stimulating speculation.  And, despite the coldness involved, we really must think about these possibilities so that we can be prepared for them.

September 12, 2016       Permalink 

IOWA FOR TRUMP IN LATEST POLL – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  Normally Democratic Iowa, which went for Obama by six points in 2012, is tilting toward Trump.  From The Hill: 

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a tight race in Iowa, according to a new poll.

Trump is favored by 43 percent of respondents while Clinton is backed by 42 percent, according to a survey by Simpson College and RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm.

In a four-way matchup, Trump also leads Clinton by 1 point, 40 to 39 percent. In that matchup, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is supported by 10 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is backed by 3 percent of voters.

Another 8 percent are undecided.

The poll finds 57 percent of respondents said there are voting "for" their candidate, but 41 percent are casting a ballot to vote "against" a candidate.

Trump has a lead over Clinton among Iowa evangelicals, 56 to 25 percent, according to the poll. Clinton has an advantage among Iowa voters who attended college, 42 to 36 percent.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 6 to 8 among 1,054 Iowa voters.

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the state, Trump has roughly a 1-point lead over the Democratic nominee, 42.3 to 41.5 percent. Several polls conducted in August show a tight race in the state.

COMMENT:  If the polls are accurate, that's a real shock.  Iowa should be safely Democratic.  We'll look to other polls to verify or question the Trump trend that we've seen.

September 12,  2016     Permalink